Douglas Todd: Five forces contorting Canadian home prices this spring

Spring is in the air. And for some, so is the expectation of a housing rebound.

The real estate industry hopes the spring market, when sales traditionally surge, will turn around housing prices, which have fallen 19 per cent nationally since their peak a year ago.

There are tentative signs some buyers are tiptoeing back into the market, which has been hammered for a year by mortgage rates that have risen to six and seven per cent. That was forced by the Bank of Canada and others around the world realizing they had to beat back inflation caused by government over-spending during the pandemic.

Realtors and mortgage lenders are playing with the mixed feelings of yearning, fear and greed that arise each spring. With signs of a tiny uptick in sales and listings in February, they enthuse about pent-up demand and upward pressure on prices. Their customary stand is to make people think the best time to buy is right now. Independent analysts are not so confident.