More sweltering summer days in Vancouver’s future: climate projections

Canadian communities need to prepare for dramatic changes in winter and summer temperatures, suggests a new municipal-level analysis of climate projections for the coming decades.

The Local News Data Hub at Ryerson University compared temperatures from 1951-80 with projections for the period 2051-80 using data from ClimateData.ca , a national data initiative bringing together scientists from university, government and private-sector organizations.

The results for 30 cities and towns show that in most locations there will be fewer days when the thermometer drops below zero. Residents accustomed to deep-freeze cold will encounter temperatures below -15 C less often. Sweltering summer heat above 30 C will be more common.

The projections show that:

• Winnipeg’s “Winterpeg” reputation will suffer. By 2051-80, there will be only six to 19 days per year on average when temperatures will be colder than -25 C. That’s down from an annual average of 33 days per year for 1951-80. Meanwhile, summer temperatures above 30 C that used to make an appearance for 12 days per year will scorch the city for 27 to 50 days by mid-century.

• Other famously cold cities such as Yellowknife, Dawson City in the Yukon, and Churchill, Man., which used to experience just over 80 days of extreme cold per year on average, could see that fall by as much as half by 2051-80. For Dawson City, that means 44 to 58 days per year on average when it will be below -25 C. Churchill can expect 34 to 59 extreme cold days. Yellowknife will experience 44 to 62 such days.