Sabrina Maddeaux: The housing boom is back, thanks to NIMBYISM and bad zoning

Welcome to spring 2023: the sun is out, the birds are chirping and the Canadian housing market looks to be entering another boom. Over-leveraged homeowners are relieved, out-priced millennials and gen Zers are fuming and it all raises the question: what the heck happened to the housing crash?

As Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Tiff Macklem hiked interest rates through the fall and winter, a housing crash appeared to be a question of when, not if. Home values began to reverse, qualifying for mortgages became ridiculously difficult and those who could qualify seemed wary of buying into a sinking ship.

Many thought that, when the spring market flooded with listings, the entire thing might go bust.

Except it hasn’t. Instead, housing stock remains woefully low, and frustrated potential buyers who were only willing to put their lives on hold for so long blinked first. Properties are getting dozens of showings again. Competitive bids are back, and prices are rising once more.

The answer to what’s happening, and why Canadian real estate hasn’t crashed, or even become much more affordable, is a complex story. However, it starts and ends with supply.