Canucks by the numbers: Finishing dead last isn’t as enticing as you might think

Going into Thursday’s game in Arizona, the Vancouver Canucks found themselves sitting ninth-worst in the NHL standings. They’re 64.4 per cent likely to draft ninth overall, were they to finish the season in this position.

The Canucks would like to draft closer to the No. 1 spot, but the way the league sets up its lottery makes this is a tricky task. Teams that finish seventh last or worse are more likely to pick in a spot that doesn’t match their finish in the standings. For example, if you finish seventh last, you have only a 44.4 per cent chance of picking seventh. The seventh-last team has a 13.4 per cent chance of picking first or second and a 42.1 per cent chance of picking eighth or ninth.

If you finish in the bottom five in the standings, you’re most likely to pick in a spot that doesn’t match your final position in said standings — which isn’t terrible, since players in the top five are incredibly good.

But finishing dead last isn’t as enticing as you might think: You have just a 25.5 per cent chance of picking first overall.